FEMA grades every county in America for disaster risk, and the winners are nowhere near Tornado Alley, so we pulled the riskiest county in every state from the agency’s own index. Los Angeles County maxes the scale at 100 with $7.60 billion in expected annual losses, about 5 percent of the nation’s $150.1 billion total, and the reason is exposure, not weather.
America’s expected annual disaster losses total $150.1 billion across 3,144 counties, and Los Angeles County alone carries about 5 percent of it.
The index measures loss, vulnerability, and resilience together, which is why giant metros outrank Tornado Alley.
Every state has a risky corner: even Vermont’s riskiest county scores 63.9 on the 100-point scale.
Hurricanes are the dominant threat in 13 states’ riskiest counties, earthquakes in 11, cold waves and tornadoes in 8 each.
The famous version of this list with three New York boroughs in the top five is a prior edition; the newest reshuffles it.
The map, your state’s riskiest county, and the formula that explains it all are below.
What is the riskiest county in America?
Los Angeles County, at the index’s maximum score of 100, with 10,005,712 residents and $7.60 billion a year in expected losses. The rest of the national top five is Cook County, Illinois, in a photo finish with LA, then Harris County, Texas, Riverside County, California, and Maricopa County, Arizona.
If you remember a version of this list crowned by the Bronx, Manhattan, and Brooklyn, that was a prior edition of the index. FEMA’s newest data, released in December 2025 and rehomed on its open-data platform, reshuffles the top and this page runs on it.
America’s ten riskiest counties (FEMA National Risk Index v1.20): score, expected annual loss, and the hazard contributing the most of it.
Rank
County
Score
Expected annual loss
Top hazard
1
Los Angeles, California
100.0
$7,602M
Earthquake
2
Cook, Illinois
100.0
$2,424M
Cold wave
3
Harris, Texas
99.9
$2,218M
Hurricane
4
Riverside, California
99.9
$2,266M
Earthquake
5
Maricopa, Arizona
99.9
$2,196M
Heat wave
6
San Bernardino, California
99.8
$2,075M
Earthquake
7
Orange, California
99.8
$1,926M
Earthquake
8
Alameda, California
99.8
$1,885M
Earthquake
9
Santa Clara, California
99.7
$1,965M
Earthquake
10
San Diego, California
99.7
$1,539M
Wildfire
The riskiest county in every state
Your state’s entry is below: the county, its score, its rating, and the hazard that contributes the most expected loss there. The map shades each state by its riskiest county’s score, and the floor is the real story, because it never drops below Vermont’s 63.9.
Map: each state shaded by its RISKIEST COUNTY’s FEMA National Risk Index score, darkest = highest (California via Los Angeles County, a raw 100; Illinois’ Cook County ties it at one decimal). NRI v1.20.Each state’s riskiest-county score, from Vermont’s 63.9 to the 100-point maximum.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025).
The riskiest county in every state: the full table
Every state plus DC, ranked by its riskiest county’s score, with the population, the expected annual loss, and the dominant hazard. Sort it however you want.
The riskiest county in every state plus DC, ranked by FEMA National Risk Index score (v1.20, December 2025). Expected annual loss is FEMA’s long-run dollars-per-year estimate; the top hazard is the largest contributor there. Click a header to sort.
Rank
State
Riskiest county
Score
Rating
Population
Expected annual loss
Top hazard
1
California
Los Angeles
100.0
Very High
10,005,712
$7,602M
Earthquake
2
Illinois
Cook
100.0
Very High
5,272,775
$2,424M
Cold wave
3
Arizona
Maricopa
99.9
Very High
4,418,836
$2,196M
Heat wave
4
Texas
Harris
99.9
Very High
4,726,200
$2,218M
Hurricane
5
Washington
King
99.7
Very High
2,268,178
$1,680M
Earthquake
6
Florida
Miami-Dade
99.6
Very High
2,698,679
$825M
Hurricane
7
Nevada
Clark
99.6
Very High
2,260,510
$813M
Heat wave
8
Pennsylvania
Philadelphia
99.6
Very High
1,602,305
$667M
Heat wave
9
Tennessee
Shelby
99.4
Relatively High
929,552
$555M
Earthquake
10
Missouri
St. Louis
99.3
Relatively High
1,003,734
$753M
Heat wave
11
New York
Kings
99.3
Relatively High
2,735,309
$375M
Heat wave
12
Michigan
Wayne
99.0
Relatively High
1,792,549
$402M
Cold wave
13
Hawaii
Honolulu
98.8
Relatively High
1,013,620
$517M
Earthquake
14
Louisiana
Jefferson Parish
98.7
Relatively High
440,590
$371M
Hurricane
15
South Carolina
Charleston
98.6
Relatively High
407,722
$500M
Hurricane
16
Utah
Salt Lake
98.6
Relatively High
1,185,141
$622M
Earthquake
17
Oregon
Multnomah
98.5
Relatively High
814,167
$440M
Earthquake
18
Wisconsin
Milwaukee
98.4
Relatively High
939,336
$342M
Cold wave
19
Kentucky
Jefferson
98.3
Relatively High
782,833
$342M
Tornado
20
Minnesota
Hennepin
98.3
Relatively High
1,281,172
$456M
Cold wave
21
Ohio
Franklin
98.1
Relatively High
1,323,446
$331M
Cold wave
22
Alabama
Mobile
98.0
Relatively High
414,514
$298M
Hurricane
23
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
97.9
Relatively High
795,336
$298M
Tornado
24
New Jersey
Bergen
97.8
Relatively High
955,459
$322M
Coastal flooding
25
District of Columbia
District of Columbia
97.6
Relatively High
688,888
$292M
Earthquake
26
Indiana
Marion
97.5
Relatively High
977,041
$285M
Tornado
27
Alaska
Anchorage Municipality
97.4
Relatively High
290,985
$367M
Earthquake
28
Georgia
Chatham
97.4
Relatively High
293,520
$277M
Hurricane
29
Connecticut
Capitol Planning Region
97.4
Relatively High
975,267
$302M
Hurricane
30
North Carolina
Mecklenburg
97.1
Relatively High
1,114,693
$318M
Tornado
31
Massachusetts
Middlesex
96.9
Relatively High
1,629,857
$322M
Hurricane
32
Arkansas
Pulaski
96.8
Relatively High
398,830
$212M
Earthquake
33
Kansas
Sedgwick
96.6
Relatively High
523,609
$256M
Tornado
34
New Mexico
Doña Ana
96.1
Relatively High
218,940
$164M
Drought
35
Nebraska
Douglas
95.9
Relatively High
584,427
$234M
Tornado
36
Mississippi
Harrison
95.6
Relatively High
208,275
$155M
Hurricane
37
Delaware
New Castle
95.3
Relatively High
570,089
$202M
Cold wave
38
Colorado
Denver
95.2
Relatively High
715,210
$222M
Hail
39
Maryland
Baltimore City
95.0
Relatively High
585,581
$136M
Heat wave
40
Virginia
Fairfax
94.7
Relatively High
1,148,223
$219M
Hurricane
41
West Virginia
Kanawha
94.5
Relatively High
180,603
$143M
Heat wave
42
Rhode Island
Providence
93.7
Relatively Moderate
660,349
$130M
Hurricane
43
Iowa
Polk
92.0
Relatively Moderate
492,316
$138M
Tornado
44
New Hampshire
Hillsborough
89.8
Relatively Moderate
422,867
$120M
Hurricane
45
South Dakota
Minnehaha
89.5
Relatively Moderate
196,891
$104M
Tornado
46
Idaho
Ada
87.8
Relatively Moderate
494,805
$116M
Wildfire
47
Montana
Flathead
86.5
Relatively Moderate
104,238
$75M
Earthquake
48
North Dakota
Burleigh
85.1
Relatively Moderate
98,437
$72M
Cold wave
49
Maine
York
81.5
Relatively Moderate
211,925
$56M
Hurricane
50
Wyoming
Laramie
76.7
Relatively Low
100,483
$42M
Cold wave
51
Vermont
Chittenden
63.9
Relatively Low
168,162
$40M
Earthquake
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.
Why is Los Angeles riskier than Tornado Alley?
Because FEMA’s index multiplies what a disaster would destroy by who’s in its path, then adjusts for social vulnerability and community resilience. Ten million people and trillions in property mean even moderate hazard frequency produces enormous expected losses; a sparsely populated tornado-alley county can’t compete.
The proof lives in Loving County, Texas, the index’s safest at 0.0, where roughly 60 people live. Risk needs someone to happen to.
The formula, and its two poles.
The mathexpected annual loss × social vulnerability ÷ community resilience, percentile-scaled 0-10018 hazards, 3,144 counties
Los Angeles County10,005,712 people, $7,602M a year in expected losses: a perfect 100exposure maxed out
Loving County, TXabout 60 residents: score 0.0, America’s lowestrisk needs someone to happen to
Source: FEMA NRI v1.20 technical documentation.
Methodology: where these numbers come from
Everything here comes from FEMA’s National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025 and now distributed through the agency’s open-data platform: county risk scores, ratings, populations, and expected annual losses in dollars, across 18 natural hazards from avalanche to winter weather. Each state’s riskiest county is the highest risk score among its counties, and the dominant hazard is the one contributing the most expected annual loss there; other hazards still apply everywhere. Scores are percentile-scaled from 0 to 100, and expected annual loss is a long-run average, not a forecast of any single year.
Territories are excluded, leaving 3,144 counties across the 50 states plus DC. Where your riskiest county’s insurance market already reflects all this, our home insurance crisis by state page has that half of the story.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 county table (December 2025)
Risk = expected annual loss × social vulnerability ÷ community resilience, scaled 0-100
Dominant hazard = largest expected-annual-loss contributor of the 18
America’s disaster bill runs $150.1 billion a year in expected losses, and it concentrates where the people are: 17 Very High counties out of 3,144, with Los Angeles County alone carrying about 5 percent. The index’s real lesson is that risk follows exposure, and everyone lives somewhere on this table.
Look up your county before you’re surprised by your insurance bill. FEMA already did the math.
Frequently asked questions
What is the safest county in America from natural disasters?
Loving County, Texas scores 0.0 on FEMA’s National Risk Index, the lowest in America, largely because only about 60 people live there. Wrangell, Alaska and Kalawao, Hawaii follow at 0.1. Low scores mostly mean low exposure: few people and little property for a disaster to harm.
How does FEMA calculate the National Risk Index?
FEMA multiplies expected annual loss, which combines hazard frequency with exposed people and property across 18 natural hazards, by social vulnerability, then divides by community resilience. Scores are percentile-scaled 0 to 100 across 3,144 counties. High population and property values raise risk scores even where hazards are moderate.
Which natural hazard drives the most risk?
Among each state’s riskiest county, hurricanes dominate in 13 states, earthquakes in 11, cold waves and tornadoes in 8 each, and heat waves in 7, per FEMA’s index. Nationally, expected annual losses total $150.1 billion across all 18 hazards. The dominant hazard varies far more by geography than the risk score does.
Is the riskiest county the most dangerous place to live?
Not exactly: FEMA’s risk score measures expected annual dollar losses adjusted for vulnerability and resilience, so Los Angeles County’s 100 reflects 10,005,712 people and immense property exposure rather than constant catastrophe. A high score means disasters there are costly, not that daily life is unsafe. Only 17 of 3,144 counties rate Very High at all.
Chris Kolmar has been in the real estate business for almost ten years now. He originally worked for Movoto Real Estate as the director of marketing before founding HomeSnacks.
He believes the key to finding the right place to live comes down to looking at the data, reading about things to do, and, most importantly, checking it out yourself before you move.
If you've been looking for a place to live in the past several years, you've probably stumbled upon his writing already.
